Sunday, 24 July 2011

Causes of Climate Change

Figure 7y-1 illustrates the basic components that influence the state of the Earth's climatic system. Changes in the state of this system can occur externally (from extraterrestrial systems) or internally (from ocean, atmosphere and land systems) through any one of the described components. For example, an external change may involve a variation in the Sun's output which would externally vary the amount of solar radiation received by the Earth's atmosphere and surface. Internal variations in the Earth's climatic system may be caused by changes in the concentrations of atmospheric gases, mountain building, volcanic activity, and changes in surface or atmospheric albedo.
Figure 7y-1: Factors that influence the Earth's climate.


The work of climatologists has found evidence to suggest that only a limited number of factors are primarily responsible for most of the past episodes of climate change on the Earth. 

These factors include:
  • Variations in the Earth's orbital characteristics.
  • Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations.
  • Volcanic eruptions
  • Variations in solar output.
Variations in the Earth's Orbital CharacteristicsThe Milankovitch theory suggests that normal cyclical variations in three of the Earth's orbital characteristics is probably responsible for some past climatic change. The basic idea behind this theory assumes that over time these three cyclic events vary the amount of solar radiation that is received on the Earth's surface.

The first cyclical variation, known as eccentricity, controls the shape of the Earth's orbit around the Sun. The orbit gradually changes from being elliptical to being nearly circular and then back to elliptical in a period of about 100,000 years. The greater the eccentricity of the orbit (i.e., the more elliptical it is), the greater the variation in solar energy received at the top of the atmosphere between the Earth's closest (perihelion) and farthest (aphelion) approach to the Sun. Currently, the Earth is experiencing a period of low eccentricity. The difference in the Earth's distance from the Sun between perihelion and aphelion (which is only about 3%) is responsible for approximately a 7% variation in the amount of solar energy received at the top of the atmosphere. When the difference in this distance is at its maximum (9%), the difference in solar energy received is about 20%.

The second cyclical variation results from the fact that, as the Earth rotates on its polar axis, it wobbles like a spinning top changing the orbital timing of the equinoxes and solstices (see Figure 7y-2 below). This effect is known as the precession of the equinox. The precession of the equinox has a cycle of approximately 26,000 years. According to illustration A, the Earth is closer to the Sun in January (perihelion) and farther away in July (aphelion) at the present time. Because of precession, the reverse will be true in 13,000 years and the Earth will then be closer to the Sun in July (illustration B). This means, of course, that if everything else remains constant, 13,000 years from now seasonal variations in the Northern Hemisphere should be greater than at present (colder winters and warmer summers) because of the closer proximity of the Earth to the Sun.

Figure 7y-2: Modification of the timing of aphelion and perihelion over time (A = today; B = 13,000 years into the future).

The third cyclical variation is related to the changes in the tilt (obliquity) of the Earth's axis of rotation over a 41,000 year period. During the 41,000 year cycle the tilt can deviate from approximately 22.5 to 24.5°. At the present time, the tilt of the Earth's axis is 23.5°. When the tilt is small there is less climatic variation between the summer and winter seasons in the middle and high latitudes. Winters tend to be milder and summers cooler. Warmer winters allow for more snow to fall in the high latitude regions. When the atmosphere is warmer it has a greater ability to hold water vapor and therefore more snow is produced at areas of frontal or orographic uplift. Cooler summers cause snow and ice to accumulate on the Earth's surface because less of this frozen water is melted. Thus, the net effect of a smaller tilt would be more extensive formation of glaciers in the polar latitudes.

Periods of a larger tilt result in greater seasonal climatic variation in the middle and high latitudes. At these times, winters tend to be colder and summers warmer. Colder winters produce less snow because of lower atmospheric temperatures. As a result, less snow and ice accumulates on the ground surface. Moreover, the warmer summers produced by the larger tilt provide additional energy to melt and evaporate the snow that fell and accumulated during the winter months. In conclusion, glaciers in the polar regions should be generally receding, with other contributing factors constant, during this part of the obliquity cycle.

Computer models and historical evidence suggest that the Milankovitch cycles exert their greatest cooling and warming influence when the troughs and peaks of all three cycles coincide with each other.

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide VariationsStudies of long term climate change have discovered a connection between the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and mean global temperature. Carbon dioxide is one of the more important gases responsible for the greenhouse effect. Certain atmospheric gases, like carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane, are able to alter the energy balance of the Earth by being able to absorb longwave radiation emitted from the Earth's surface. The net result of this process and the re-emission of longwave back to the Earth's surface increases the quantity of heat energy in the Earth's climatic system. Without the greenhouse effect, the average global temperature of the Earth would be a cold -18° Celsius rather than the present 15° Celsius.

Researchers of the 1970s CLIMAP project found strong evidence in deep-ocean sediments of variations in the Earth's global temperature during the past several hundred thousand years of the Earth's history. Other subsequent studies have confirmed these findings and have discovered that these temperature variations were closely correlated to the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and variations in solar radiation received by the planet as controlled by the Milankovitch cycles. Measurements indicated that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were about 30% lower during colder glacial periods. It was also theorized that the oceans were a major store of carbon dioxide and that they controlled the movement of this gas to and from the atmosphere. The amount of carbon dioxide that can be held in oceans is a function of temperature. Carbon dioxide is released from the oceans when global temperatures become warmer and diffuses into the ocean when temperatures are cooler. Initial changes in global temperature were triggered by changes in received solar radiation by the Earth through the Milankovitch cycles. The increase in carbon dioxide then amplified the global warming by enhancing the greenhouse effect.

Over the past three centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide has been increasing in the Earth's atmosphere because of human influences (Figure 7y-3). Human activities like the burning of fossil fuels, conversion of natural prairie to farmland, and deforestation have caused the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. From the early 1700s, carbon dioxide has increased from 280 parts per million to 380 parts per million in 2005. Many scientists believe that higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will enhance the greenhouse effect making the planet warmer. Scientists believe we are already experiencing global warming due to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect. Most computer climate models suggest that the globe will warm up by 1.5 - 4.5° Celsius if carbon dioxide reaches the predicted level of 600 parts per million by the year 2050.

Figure 7y-3: The following graph illustrates the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide from 1744 to 2005. Note that the increase in carbon dioxide's concentration in the atmosphere has been exponential during the period examined. An extrapolation into the immediate future would suggest continued increases.

(Source: Neftel, A., H. Friedli, E. Moore, H. Lotscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, and B. Stauffer. 1994. Historical carbon dioxide record from the Siple Station ice core. pp. 11-14. In T.A. Boden, D.P. Kaiser, R.J. Sepanski, and F.W. Stoss (eds.) Trends'93: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. ORNL/CDIAC-65. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn. U.S.A. and Keeling, C.D. and T.P. Whorf. 2006. Atmospheric CO2 records from sites in the SIO air sampling network. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.).


Volcanic EruptionsFor many years, climatologists have noticed a connection between large explosive volcanic eruptions and short term climatic change (Figure 7y-4). For example, one of the coldest years in the last two centuries occurred the year following the Tambora volcanic eruption in 1815. Accounts of very cold weather were documented in the year following this eruption in a number of regions across the planet. Several other major volcanic events also show a pattern of cooler global temperatures lasting 1 to 3 years after their eruption.


Figure 7y-4: Explosive volcanic eruptions have been shown to have a short-term cooling effect on the atmosphere if they eject large quantities of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. This image shows the eruption of Mount St. Helens on May 18, 1980 which had a local effect on climate because of ash reducing the reception of solar radiation on the Earth's surface. Mount St. Helens had very minimal global effect on the climate because the eruption occurred at an oblique angle putting little sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. (Source: U.S. Geological Survey, photograph by Austin Post).






At first, scientists thought that the dust emitted into the atmosphere from large volcanic eruptions was responsible for the cooling by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's surface. However, measurements indicate that most of the dust thrown in the atmosphere returned to the Earth's surface within six months. Recent stratospheric data suggests that large explosive volcanic eruptions also eject large quantities of sulfur dioxide gas which remains in the atmosphere for as long as three years. Atmospheric chemists have determined that the ejected sulfur dioxide gas reacts with water vapor commonly found in the stratosphere to form a dense optically bright haze layer that reduces the atmospheric transmission of some of the Sun's incoming radiation.

In the last century, two significant climate modifying eruptions have occurred. El Chichon in Mexico erupted in April of 1982, and Mount Pinatubo went off in the Philippines during June, 1991 (Figure 7y-5). Of these two volcanic events, Mount Pinatubo had a greater effect on the Earth's climate and ejected about 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere (Figure 7y-6). Researchers believe that the Pinatubo eruption was primarily responsible for the 0.8 degree Celsius drop in global average air temperature in 1992. The global climatic effects of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo are believed to have peaked in late 1993. Satellite data confirmed the connection between the Mount Pinatubo eruption and the global temperature decrease in 1992 and 1993. The satellite data indicated that the sulfur dioxide plume from the eruption caused a several percent increase in the amount of sunlight reflected by the Earth's atmosphere back to space causing the surface of the planet to cool.


Figure 7y-5: Ash column generated by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo on June 12, 1991. The strongest eruption of Mount Pinatubo occurred three days later on June 15, 1991. (Source: US Geological Survey).




Figure 7y-6: The following satellite image shows the distribution of Mount Pinatubo's sulfur dioxide and dust aerosol plume (red and yellow areas) between June 14 and July 26, 1991. Approximately 45 days after the eruption, the aerosol plume completely circled the Earth around the equator forming a band 20 to 50° of latitude wide. Areas outside this band were clear of volcanic aerosols. Within a year, the sulfur dioxide continued to migrate towards the North and South Pole until it covered the entire Earth because of the dominant poleward flow of stratospheric winds (stratospheric winds circulate from the equator to the polar vortices at the North and South Poles). These observed patterns of aerosol movement suggest that tropical explosive volcanic eruptions probably have the greatest effect on the Earth's climate. Diffusion of aerosols by stratospheric winds from a tropical source results in the greatest latitudinal coverage of the sulfur dioxide across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. (Source: SAGE II Satellite Project - NASA).


Variations in Solar OutputUntil recently, many scientists thought that the Sun's output of radiation only varied by a fraction of a percent over many years. However, measurements made by satellites equipped with radiometers in the 1980s and 1990s suggested that the Sun's energy output may be more variable than was once thought (Figure 7y-7). Measurements made during the early 1980s showed a decrease of 0.1 percent in the total amount of solar energy reaching the Earth over just an 18 month time period. If this trend were to extend over several decades, it could influence global climate. Numerical climatic models predict that a change in solar output of only 1 percent per century would alter the Earth's average temperature by between 0.5 to 1.0° Celsius.
Figure 7y-7: The Sun as seen at sunrise. The Sun is essentially the only source of energy for running the Earth's climate. Thus any change in its output will result in changes in the reception of insolation and the generation of heat energy which drives the climate system.


Scientists have long tried to also link sunspots to climatic change (also see the link www.sunspotcycle.com). Sunspots are huge magnetic storms that are seen as dark (cooler) areas on the Sun's surface. The number and size of sunspots show cyclical patterns, reaching a maximum about every 11, 90, and 180 years. The decrease in solar energy observed in the early 1980s correspond to a period of maximum sunspot activity based on the 11 year cycle. In addition, measurements made with a solar telescope from 1976 to 1980 showed that during this period, as the number and size of sunspots increased, the Sun's surface cooled by about 6° Celsius. Apparently, the sunspots prevented some of the Sun's energy from leaving its surface. However, these findings tend to contradict observations made on longer times scales. Observations of the Sun during the middle of the Little Ice Age (1650 to 1750) indicated that very little sunspot activity was occurring on the Sun's surface. The Little Ice Age was a time of a much cooler global climate and some scientists correlate this occurrence with a reduction in solar activity over a period of 90 or 180 years. Measurements have shown that these 90 and 180 year cycles influence the amplitude of the 11 year sunspot cycle. It is hypothesized that during times of low amplitude, like the Maunder Minimum, the Sun's output of radiation is reduced. Observations by astronomers during this period (1645 to 1715) noticed very little sunspot activity occurring on the Sun.During periods of maximum sunspot activity, the Sun's magnetic field is strong. When sunspot activity is low, the Sun's magnetic field weakens. The magnetic field of the Sun also reverses every 22 years, during a sunspot minimum. Some scientists believe that the periodic droughts on the Great Plains of the United States are in some way correlated with this 22 year cycle.


Saturday, 23 July 2011

In 1937 Joe Brandt saw an Earthquake sink Los Angeles, much of California and Japan


I found this story, it seems to be apt to our current era of global uncertainty. Could the recent earthquakes  be a prelude of what is to come?


THE COMING EARTHQUAKE — Introduction by Jessica Madigan (Mei Ling)

On Christmas Eve, in 1965, my husband—my closest friend, Fran Brandt, and her husband, Joe, were celebrating with sandwiches, and coffee, and fruit cake, in the meditation room, downstairs. Carols poured from the TV, upstairs, a holiday dinner was in the making. For some reason, Joe—Fran's husband—ventured to speak of the coming California earthquake. It did not seem a moment to talk about earthquakes—because Christmas is the most precious time in the world. The huge tree, ablaze with tiny star-lights seemed to presage only goodness, and love, and beauty. Joe was saying that he had an accident—a fall from a horse when he was 17, and for days he had a concussion. During this period, a continuous dream came again and again—as if he were viewing a tremendous earthquake and inundation in California and other parts of the world.

I listened—politely—made some comment, and turned to talk to Fran about a new movie—or some equally world shaking event. I was vaguely aware that Joe had brought in a sheaf of papers—and he said he would put it in my downstairs desk [in 1965] until I had time to read the "dream". That time did not arrive, until, by accident, I came across them this last week [in 1967]—pages after pages after pages—written in a boy's handwriting, about the coming California earthquake. It would take weeks to research all this material—but I phoned my former geology professor and read portions to him. COULD THIS HAPPEN? COULD CALIFORNIA GO DOWN IN JUST THIS WAY? WOULD OTHER AREAS BE AFFECTED IN A MATTER OF HOURS? He answered in the affirmative. Joe had written (sleeping and dreaming—and in drowsy awakening—about positions of various FAULTS, strata of rock, earth movements, so much material that a geologist of many years would scarcely attempt such a work [this geological data was omitted from Jessica's book]. Yet—here it was—waiting for me to find it for two years. Since that night, Fran has changed worlds [in 1966 or 1967]—and my husband is very ill—other unforseen events which I could not have imagined have taken place—and all this, perhaps, precluded my finding of the "earthquake papers".

This book is already very long—double its size—and I realize that this vision given to a 17 year old boy must be placed, as it is, into a book. Consciously, he knew nothing of geology or of the possibility of a coming earthquake. The notes are 30 years old—yellowed with age—and yet there is a clarity and an unbelievable reality in them. Some of the highlights must be given—because, I am certain now, as I was not certain on Christmas Eve of 1965, that the California earthquake WILL come . . . and its coming is close at hand. Since Joe covered the AREAS AROUND THE WORLD WHICH WOULD BE AFFECTED, not all of these can be given (although perhaps we can write a booklet on this experience), but for those of us in THIS LAND . . . especially the CALIFORNIA LAND, these are the highlights of that vision.

I woke up in the hospital room with a terrific headache—as if the whole world was revolving inside my brain. I remember, vaguely, the fall from my horse—Blackie. As I lay there, pictures began to form in my mind—pictures that stood still. I seemed to be in another world. Whether it was the future, or it was some ancient land, I could not say. Then slowly, like the silver screen of the "talkies," but with color and smell and sound, I seemed to find myself in Los Angeles—but I swear it was much bigger, and buses and odd-shaped cars crowded the city streets.

I thought about Hollywood Boulevard, and I found myself there. Whether this is true, I do not know, but there were a lot of guys my age with beards and wearing, some of them, earrings. All the girls, some of them keen-o, wore real short skirts. . . and they slouched along—moving like a dance. Yet they seemed familiar. I wondered if I could talk to them, and I said, "Hello," but they didn't see or hear me. I decided I would look as funny to them as they looked to me. I guess it is something you have to learn. I couldn't do it.

I noticed there was a quietness about the air, a kind of stillness. Something else was missing, something that should be there. At first, I couldn't figure it out, I didn't know what it was—then I did. There were no birds. I listened. I walked two blocks north of the Boulevard—all houses—no birds. I wondered what had happened to them. Had they gone away? Again, I could hear the stillness. Then I knew something was going to happen.

I wondered what year it was. It certainly was not 1937. I saw a newspaper on the corner with a picture of the President. It surely wasn't Mr. Roosevelt. He was bigger, heavier, big ears. If it wasn't 1937, I wondered what year it was. . . My eyes weren't working right. Someone was coming—someone in 1937—it was that darned, fat nurse ready to take my temperature. I woke up. Crazy dream.

The next day: Gosh, my headache is worse. It is a wonder I didn't get killed on that horse. I've had another crazy dream, back in Hollywood. Those people. Why do they dress like that, I wonder? Funny glow about them. It is a shine around their heads—something shining. I remember it now. I found myself back on the Boulevard. I was waiting for something to happen and I was going to be there. I looked up at the clock down by that big theater. It was ten minutes to four. Something big was going to happen.

I wondered if I went into a movie (since nobody could see me) if I'd like it. Some cardboard blond was draped over the marquee with her leg six feet long. I started to go in, but it wasn't inside. I was waiting for something to happen outside. I walked down the street. In the concrete they have names of stars. I just recognized a few of them. The other names I had never heard. I was getting bored, I wanted to get back to the hospital in Fresno, and I wanted to stay there on the Boulevard, even if nobody could see me. Those crazy kids. Why are they dressed like that? Maybe it is some big Halloween doings, but it don't seem like Halloween. More like early spring. There was that sound again, that lack of sound. Stillness, stillness, stillness. The quiet is getting bigger and bigger. I know it is going to happen. Something is going to happen. It is happening now! It sure did. She woke me up, grinning and smiling, that fat one again.

"It's time for your milk, kiddo," she says. Gosh, old women of thirty acting like the cat's pajamas. Next time maybe she'll bring hot chocolate.

Where have I been? Where haven't I been? I've been to the ends of the earth and back. I've been to the end of the world—there isn't anything left. Not even Fresno, even though I'm lying here right this minute. If only my eyes would get a little clearer so I can write all this down. Nobody will believe me, anyway. I'm going back to that last moment on the Boulevard. Some sweet kid went past, dragging little boys (twins, I guess) by each hand. Her skirt was up—well, pretty high—and she had a tired look. I thought for a minute I could ask her about the birds, what had happened to them, and then I remembered she hadn't seen me. Her hair was all frowzy, way out all over her head. A lot of them looked like that, but she looked so tired and like she was sorry about something. I guess she was sorry before it happened—because it surely did happen. There was a funny smell. I don't know where it came from. I didn't like it. A smell like sulphur, sulfuric acid, a smell like death. For a minute I thought I was back in chem. [Chemistry class].

When I looked around for the girl, she was gone. I wanted to find her for some reason. It was as if I knew something was going to happen and I could stay with her, help her. She was gone, and I walked half a block, then I saw the clock again. My eyes seemed glued to that clock. I couldn't move. I just waited. It was five minutes to four on a sunny afternoon. I thought I would stand there looking at that clock forever waiting for something to come. Then, when it came, it was nothing. It was just nothing. It wasn't nearly as hard as the earthquake we had two years ago. The ground shook, just an instant. People looked at each other, surprised. Then they laughed. I laughed, too. So this was what I had been waiting for. This funny little shake. It meant nothing.

I was relieved and I was disappointed. What had I been waiting for? I started back up the Boulevard, moving my legs like those kids. How do they do it? I never found out. I felt as if the ground wasn't solid under me, knew I was dreaming, and yet I wasn't dreaming. There was that smell again, coming up from the ocean. I was getting to the 5 and 10 store and I saw the look on the kids' faces. Two of them were right in front of me, coming my way.

"Let's get out of this place. Let's go back East." He seemed scared. It wasn't as if the sidewalks were trembling—but you couldn't seem to see them. Not with your eyes you couldn't. An old lady had a dog, a little white dog, and she stopped and looked scared, and grabbed him in her arms and said: "Let's go home, Frou, Frou. Mama is going to take you home." That poor lady, hanging on to her dog.

I got scared. Real scared. I remembered the girl. She was way down the block, probably. I ran and ran, and the ground kept trembling. I couldn't see it. I couldn't see it. But I knew it was trembling. Everybody looked scared. They looked terrible. One young lady just sat down on the sidewalk all doubled up. She kept saying, "earthquake, its the earthquake," over and over. But I couldn't see that anything was different.

Then, when it came, how it came. Like nothing in God's world. Like nothing. It was like the scream of a siren, long and low, or the scream of a woman I heard having a baby when I was a kid. It was awful. It was as if something—some monster—was pushing up the sidewalks. You felt it long before you saw it, as if the sidewalks wouldn't hold you anymore. I looked out at the cars. They were honking, but not scared. They just kept moving. They didn't seem to know yet that anything was happening. Then, that white car, that baby half-sized one came sprawling from the inside lane right against the curb. The girl who was driving just sat there. She sat there with her eyes staring, as if she couldn't move, but I could hear her. She made funny noises.

I watched her, thinking of the other girl. I said that it was a dream and I would wake up. But I didn't wake up. The shaking had started again, but this time different. It was a nice shaking, like a cradle being rocked for a minute, and then I saw the middle of the Boulevard seem to be breaking in two. The concrete looked as if it were being pushed straight up by some giant shovel. It was breaking in two. That is why the girl's car went out of control. And then a loud sound again, like I've never heard before—then hundreds of sounds—all kinds of sounds; children, and women, and those crazy guys with earrings. They were all moving, some of them above the sidewalk. I can't describe it. They were lifted up.

And the waters kept oozing—oozing. The cries. God, it was awful. I woke up. I never want to have that dream again.

It came again. Like the first time which was a preview and all I could remember was that it was the end of the world. I was right back there—all that crying. Right in the middle of it. My eardrums felt as if they were going to burst. Noise everywhere. People falling down, some of them hurt badly. Pieces of buildings, chips, flying in the air. One hit me hard on the side of the face, but I didn't seem to feel it. I wanted to wake up, to get away from this place. It had been fun in the beginning, the first dream, when I kind of knew I was going to dream the end of the world or something. This was terrible. There were older people in cars. Most of the kids were on the street. But those old guys were yelling bloody murder, as if anybody could help them. Nobody could help anybody. It was then I felt myself lifted up. Maybe I had died. I don't know. But I was over the city. It was tilting toward the ocean—like a picnic table.

The buildings were holding, better than you could believe. They were holding. They were holding. They were holding.

The people saw they were holding and they tried to cling to them or get inside. It was fantastic. Like a building had a will of its own. Everything else breaking around them, and they were holding, holding. I was up over them—looking down. I started to root for them. "Hold that line," I said. "Hold that line. Hold that line. Hold that line." I wanted to cheer, to shout, to scream. If the buildings held, those buildings on the Boulevard, maybe the girl—the girl with the two kids—maybe she could get inside. It looked that way for a long time, maybe three minutes, and three minutes was like forever. You knew they were going to hold, even if the waters kept coming up. Only they didn't.

I've never imagined what it would be like for a building to die. A building dies just like a person. It gives way, some of the bigger ones did just that. They began to crumble, like an old man with palsy, who couldn't take it anymore. They crumbled right down to nothing. And the little ones screamed like mad—over and above the roar of the people. They were mad about dying. But buildings die.

I couldn't look anymore at the people. I kept wanting to get higher. Then I seemed to be out of it all, but I could see. I seemed to be up on Big Bear near San Bernardino, but the funny thing was that I could see everywhere. I knew what was happening. The earth seemed to start to tremble again. I could feel it even though I was high up. This time it lasted maybe twelve seconds, and it was gentle. You couldn't believe anything so gentle could cause so much damage. But then I saw the streets of Los Angeles—and everything between the San Bernardino mountains and Los Angeles. It was still tilting towards the ocean, houses, everything that was left. I could see the big lanes—dozens of big lanes still loaded with cars sliding the same way. Now the ocean was coming in, moving like a huge snake across the land. I wondered how long it was, and I could see the clock, even though I wasn't there on the Boulevard. It was 4:29. It had been half an hour. I was glad I couldn't hear the crying anymore. But I could see everything. I could see everything.

Then, like looking at a huge map of the world, I could see what was happening on the land and with the people. San Francisco was feeling it, but she was not in any way like Hollywood or Los Angeles. It was moving just like that earthquake movie with Jeanette McDonald and Gable. I could see all those mountains coming together. . . I knew it was going to happen to San Francisco—it was going to turn over—it would turn upside down. It went quickly, because of the twisting, I guess. It seemed much faster than Hollywood, but then I wasn't exactly there. I was a long way off. I was a long, long way off. I shut my eyes for a long time—I guess ten minutes—and when I opened them I saw Grand Canyon.

When I looked at Grand Canyon, that great big gap was closing in, and Boulder Dam was being pushed, from underneath. And then, Nevada, and on up to Reno. Way down south, way down. Baja, California. Mexico too. It looked like some volcano down there was erupting, along with everything else. I saw the map of South America, especially Colombia. Another volcano—eruption—shaking violently. I seemed to be seeing a movie of three months before—before the Hollywood earthquake. Venezuela seemed to be having some kind of volcanic activity. Away off in the distance, I could see Japan, on a fault, too. It was so far off—not easy to see because I was still on Big Bear Mountain, but it started to go into the sea. I couldn't hear screaming, but I could see the surprised look on their faces. They looked so surprised. Japanese girls are made well, supple, easy, muscles that move well. Pretty, too. But they were all like dolls. It was so far away I could hardly see it. In a minute or two it seemed over. Everybody was gone. There was nobody left.

I didn't know time now. I couldn't see a clock. I tried to see the island of Hawaii. I could see huge tidal waves beating against it. The people on the streets were getting wet, and they were scared. But I didn't see anybody go into the sea.

I seemed way around the globe. More flooding. Is the world going to be drenched? Constantinople. Black Sea rising. Suez Canal, for some reason seemed to be drying up. Sicily—she doesn't hold. I could see a map. Mt. Etna. Mt. Etna is shaking. A lot of area seemed to go, but it seemed to be earlier or later. I wasn't sure of time, now.

England—huge floods—but no tidal waves. Water, water everywhere, but no one was going into the sea. People were frightened and crying. Some places they fell to the streets on their knees and started to pray for the world. I didn't know the English were emotional. Ireland, Scotland—all kinds of churches were crowded—it seemed night and day. People were carrying candles and everybody was crying for California, Nevada, parts of Colorado—maybe even all of it, even Utah. Everybody was crying—most of them didn't even know anybody in California, Nevada, Utah, but they were crying as if they were blood kin. Like one family. Like it happened to them.

New York was coming into view—she was still there, nothing had happened, yet water level was way up. Here, things were different. People were running in the streets yelling—"end of the world." Kids ran into restaurants and ate everything in sight. I saw a shoe store with all the shoes gone in about five minutes. 5th Avenue—everybody running. Some radio blasting—bigger—a loud speaker—that in a few minutes, power might be shut off. They must control themselves. Five girls were running like mad toward the YMCA, that place on Lexington or somewhere. But nothing was happening in New York. I saw an old lady with garbage cans filling them with water. Everybody seemed scared to death. Some people looked dazed. The streets seemed filled with loud speakers. It wasn't daylight. It was night.

I saw, like the next day, and everything was topsy turvey. Loud speakers again about fuel tanks broken in areas—shortage of oil. People seemed to be looting markets.

I saw a lot of places that seemed safe, and people were not so scared. Especially the rural areas. Here everything was almost as if nothing had happened. People seemed headed to these places, some on foot, some in cars that still had fuel. I heard—or somehow I knew—that somewhere in the Atlantic land had come up. A lot of land. I was getting awfully tired. I wanted to wake up. I wanted to go back to the girl—to know where she was—and those two kids. I found myself back in Hollywood—and it was still 4:29. I wasn't up on Big Bear at all, I was perched over Hollywood. I was just there. It seemed perfectly natural in my dream.

I could hear now. I could hear, someplace, a radio station blasting out—telling people not to panic. They were dying in the streets. There were picture stations with movies—some right in Hollywood—these were carrying on with all the shaking. One fellow in the picture station was a little short guy who should have been scared to death. But he wasn't. He kept shouting and reading instructions. Something about helicopters or planes would go over—some kind of planes—but I knew they couldn't. Things were happening in the atmosphere. The waves were rushing up now. Waves. Such waves. Nightmare waves.

Then, I saw again. Boulder Dam, going down—pushing together, pushing together breaking apart—no, Grand Canyon was pushing together, and Boulder Dam was breaking apart. It was still daylight. All these radio stations went off at the same time—Boulder Dam had broken.

I wondered how everybody would know about it—people back East. That was when I saw the "ham radio operators." I saw them in the darndest places, as if I were right there with them. Like the little guy with glasses, they kept sounding the alarm. One kept saying: "This is California. We are going into the sea. This is California. We are going into the sea. Get to high places. Get to the mountains. All states west—this is California. We are going into the. . . we are going into the. . ." I thought he was going to say "sea," but I could see him. He was inland, but the waters had come in. His hand was still clinging to the table, he was trying to get up, so that once again he could say: "This is California. We are going into the sea. This is California. We are going into the sea."

I seemed to hear this, over and over, for what seemed hours—just those words—they kept it up until the last minute—all of them calling out, "Get to the mountains—this is California. We are going into the sea."

I woke up. It didn't seem as if I had been dreaming. I have never been so tired. For a minute or two, I thought it had happened. I wondered about two things. I hadn't seen what happened to Fresno and I hadn't found out what happened to that girl.

I've been thinking about it all morning. I'm going home tomorrow. It was just a dream. It was nothing more. Nobody in the future on Hollywood Boulevard is going to be wearing earrings—and those beards. Nothing like that is ever going to happen. That girl was so real to me—that girl with those kids. It won't ever happen—but if it did, how could I tell her (maybe she isn't even born yet) to move away from California when she has her twins—and she can't be on the Boulevard that day. She was so gosh-darned real.

The other thing—those ham operators—hanging on like that—over and over—saying the same thing:

"This is California. We are going into the sea. This is California. We are going into the sea. Get to the mountains. Get to the hilltops. California, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Utah. This is California. We are going into the sea."

I guess I'll hear that for days.

Joe Brandt's Dreams agree with the Prophecies of William Branham

A prophecy that I made about 1935 or something like that, said: "The time would come (It's written in a book somewhere) that the sea would weep it's way into the desert." Look what'll take place. If that thousands of square miles falls down into the lava of the earth and slides in, there'll be millions die at one time. And that'll cause such a tidal wave. . . Remember, plumb up into the Salton Sea is a hundred or two hundred feet lower than the sea level. That water will probably come almost to Tucson with that tidal wave coming across there. And the sea shall weep its way into the desert (William Branham, Trying to do God a Service without being in the Will of God, p. 6:25).

[The Spirit of the Lord came upon the Prophet as he was preaching in Los Angeles]: "We don't know what time. And you don't know what time that this city one day is going to be laying out here in the bottom of this ocean."

"O, Capernaum," said Jesus, "Thou who exalted into heaven will be brought down into hell, for if the mighty works had been done in Sodom and Gomorrah, it'd have been standing till this day." And Sodom and Gomorrah lays at the bottom of the Dead Sea, and Capernaum's in the bottom of the sea. Thou city, who claims to be the city of the Angels, who's exalted yourself into heaven and sent all the dirty filthy things of fashions and things, till even the foreign countries come here to pick up our filth and send it away, with your fine churches and steeples, and so forth the way you do; remember, one day you'll be laying in the bottom of this sea. You're great honeycomb under you right now. The wrath of God is belching right beneath you. How much longer He'll hold this sandbar hanging over that, when that ocean out yonder a mile deep will slide in there plumb back to the Salton Sea. It'll be worse than the last day of Pompeii. Repent, Los Angeles. Repent the rest of you and turn to God. The hour of His wrath is upon the earth. Flee while there's time to flee and come into Christ." Let us pray." (Choosing a Bride, p. 35:3-5).

[And again]: "The last meeting I had in California, while speaking, and didn't know nothing happened till I got on the street, It told California, said, "Capernaum, Capernaum, the city that's called by the name of the angels (that's Los Angeles), you've exalted yourself into heaven, but you'll be brought down into hell. For if the mighty works had been done in Sodom that's been done in you, it would've been standing till this day."

"Now, the last few days, the great roaring and popping. Then, here come out a paper of science, said, "It's all honeycombed; it's got to go under." They just know it." "And you watch, the water will come plumb back into the Salton Sea. Los Angeles is doomed for judgment. I tell you before it happened, that you might know when it does happen. I never spoke that by myself. And I've never had Him to tell me one thing but what happened. And you can bear record of that. That's right. When? I don't know." "I went out, and they told me what I said. And I listened, went back and searched the Scripture. You know, Jesus said, almost in them same words about Capernaum; and Sodom and Gomorrah was in the bottom of the Dead Sea, I suppose was then. And later, about a hundred years later, Capernaum slid into the sea, and it's in the sea. The same God that put Sodom in the sea for its sins, the same God that put Capernaum in the sea for its sins, the same God will put Los Angeles in the sea for its sins, that city of corruption." (Works is Faith Expressed, p. 8:61-64).

Thursday, 21 July 2011

Study: Non-Africans are part Neanderthal

It has been a long held belief that our human ancestors came into contact with Neanderthals, and recent findings not only confirm this, but also suggest exactly how "close" this contact was.


Doctor Damian Labuda of the University of Montreal's Department of Pediatrics and the CHU Sainte-Justine Research Center and team have found part of the human X chromosome comes from the Neanderthals and is found only in people outside of Africa.

In a paper published in the July issue of the journal Molecular Biology and Evolution, the geneticists write: "We provide evidence of a notable presence (nine percent overall) of a Neanderthal-derived X chromosome segment among all contemporary human populations outside Africa". The team analyzed 6,092 X-chromosomes "from all inhabited continents". Their discovery confirms earlier hypotheses that early modern man and Neanderthals mixed and mated.

The ancestors of the Neanderthals are believed to have left Africa between 400,000 to 800,000 years ago. However, by 30,000 years BC, they had disappeared. The ancestors of modern man left Africa between 80,000 and 50,000 years BC, suggesting that there was a definite crossover between the two.

Discovery News adds: "The team believes most, if not all, of the interbreeding took place in the Middle East, while modern humans were migrating out of Africa and spreading to other regions."

This finding comes nearly ten years after Labuda and team identified a piece of DNA in the human X chromosome (calledhaplotype) that seemed different. In a release detailing the finings, it explains: "When the genome of Neanderthals was sequenced in 2010, they quickly compared to 6,000 chromosomes from across the world with the haplotype of the Neanderthal. The sequence of the Neanderthal man was found in people of all continents, including Australia, but with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa."

Dr. David Reich, a geneticist at Harvard Medical School, and one of the researchers involved in the project of deciphering the genome of Neanderthals says: "Labuda and his colleagues were the first to identify in non-African genetic variation may come from an archaic population. At the time, they have identified without access to the genome sequence of the Neanderthal. Today, in light of the Neanderthal genome sequence, it is clear that they were absolutely right."

Monday, 18 July 2011

Large Earthquakes Trigger A Surge In Volcanic Eruptions

In 2012 there will be fire raining from the skies, tsunamis, bringing civilisation to its knees. 


Is this possible, it is clear that the planet is going through unprecedented change, could this be the prelude to fire raining down from the skies? Mountains falling into the seas?

A study carried out by Oxford university showed that there is a direct link between earthquakes and volcanoes erupting.

It is interesting that in recent years there has been an increase in earthquakes, extreme weather, solar activity, etc. As we get closer to 2012 will these earth changes become even more dramatic?

There are a lot of dangerous volcanoes that could erupt at anytime, such as:
Italy's Mount Vesuvius is most famous for the A.D. 79 eruption that buried the cities of Pompeii and Herculaneum. Despite the dark history, millions of people today live near the volcano. The thriving mass of humanity in such close proximity to the volcano makes Vesuvius a serious contender for the world's most dangerous volcano. Scientists fear that a catastrophic eruption could hurl scalding gas-rich magma, water vapor and debris at the masses with insufficient warning time for an evacuation. 
After 9,000 years of dormancy, the Chaiten volcano in southern Chile awoke in 2008 and began a series of eruptions that spewed ash miles into the sky, as shown in this image. The volcano's namesake town of 4,500, just 6 miles from the spewing crater, was devastated by falling ash and floods. The eruption claimed at least one life and serves as a stark reminder that slumbering volcanoes pose grave dangers. Click on the "Next" label to learn about seven more dangerous volcanoes around the world. 
Mexico City, a metropolis of 18 million people, sits 40 miles to the east of Popocatepetl, the second tallest volcano in North America. Puebla, a town of 2 million, lies 30 miles to the west. A major eruption, scientists say, could choke the skies with ash and send massive mudslides into the crowded valleys below. The result could prove catastrophic. The volcano has been relatively quiet since a bout of activity between 1920 and 1922, though it rumbled back to life in 2000, as shown in this image, prompting evacuation orders and worries that "Popo" is ready to blow. 
Merapi in Indonesia is one of the world's most active volcanoes, regularly spewing hot gas and ash miles into the sky, and sending mud and fragmented rocks down the sides. In 1994, 60 people were killed by a searing gas cloud, and about 1,300 people died when it erupted in 1930. During a bout of eruptions in 2006, many villagers, including the woman in this picture, refused orders to evacuate. They believe the spirits will warn when a catastrophic eruption is imminent. 
Lava flows, while hot, are rarely deadly: They usually ooze slow enough that people can easily outrun them. That's not the case with the lava that flows from Nyirangongo in Africa's Democratic Republic of Congo. It has very low levels of silica, the mineral that thickens and slows lavas. In 2002, Nyirangongo's lava suddenly gushed at speeds up to 60 mph into the town of Goma, which is home to half a million people. Scientists fear that lava pooling in the crater could suddenly drain again and cause even more devastation. 
After nearly a year of minor earthquakes and eruptions, Colombia's Nevada del Ruiz volcano exploded on Nov. 13, 1985. Pyroclastic flows melted the summit's snowcap. Mudflows, called lahars, raced down the mountainside. One mudflow wiped out the village of Chinchina and killed 1,927 people, according to reports. A second followed the same path as earlier lahars and swept away the town of Armero, shown in this image. An estimated 23,000 people died, making it Colombia's worst natural disaster. Scientists said an early warning system could have averted the loss of life. Now that one is in place, will it work when the volcano wakes again? 
The islands of Japan harbor more than 100 volcanoes, and a handful or so erupt every year. The majestic Mount Fuji, shown here, has not erupted since 1707, but a swarm of low-frequency earthquakes in 2000 and 2001 raised the specter that the mountain was awakening from its 300-year slumber. Though Fuji has since quieted down, the risk to Tokyo, a city of 30 million people just 70 miles to the east, is very real, scientists say. A 2004 government study put the price tag of a worst-case eruption at more than $20 billion. 
Washington's 14,410-foot-tall Mount Rainier, shown in this image, is a big attraction for many people in the Pacific Northwest. It is also a big threat, according to scientists. An estimated 3 million people live in its shadow — at least 100,000 on top of old mudflows from previous eruptions. The flows, known as lahars, are the greatest risk. Though commonly associated with major eruptions that strike with ample warning, an earthquake or small burp of rock, ash and gas could also trigger a lahar, giving residents in the path only 10 to 15 minutes to escape. 
Yellowstone Park Volcano. It is most dangerous because it is an active super-volcano which means a volcano capable of producing a volcanic eruption with ejecta greater than 1,000 cubic kilometers which is nearly a thousands of times larger than most historic volcanic eruptions. Super volcanic eruptions typically cover huge areas with lava and volcanic ash sufficient to threaten the extinction of species and can even be one of the causes to bring end to the world because once this volcano erupts, it causes all other volcanoes to erupt causing massive tectonic activity.
One of the largest supervolcanoes in the world lying beneath Yellowstone National Park and scientists say it is still active and even the activity is increasing! Though the Yellowstone system, which spans parts of Wyoming, Montana and Idaho, is active and expected to eventually blow its top, scientists think it will erupt any time soon. Supervolcanoes can sleep for centuries or millenniams before producing incredibly massive eruptions that can drop ash across an entire continent.
Erupting every 6 lac years and it’s already 40 thousand years over, significant activity is mounting beneath the surface, scientists say it can erupt anytime. Back to 640,000 years ago, the area that we know as Yellowstone National Park was the epicenter of a cataclysmic volcanic eruption—an eruption one thousand times larger than Mt. St. Helens. The eruption blasted away mountains, unearthed a vast ocean of lava and spewed hundreds of miles of debris into the atmosphere, burying half of the United States with deadly ash. Largely unknown today, this destructive super volcano is still active, turning the picturesque landscape of Yellowstone into one of the harshest environments on the planet. Due to the volcanic and tectonic nature of the region, the Yellowstone Caldera experiences between 1000 and 2000 measurable earthquakes a year, though most are relatively minor. 
 

April 2011 - YELLOWSTONE has 4.1 magnitude earthquake


video
Yellowstone is an active volcano, however there has been an increase in earthquakes in and around the area over the last few years. If the the Oxford University findings are correct, earthquakes trigger volcanic eruptions, then Yellowstone may be on the verge of a catastrophe. The only question is why hasn't it happened yet?

Large Earthquakes Trigger A Surge In Volcanic Eruptions 
ScienceDaily (Jan. 12, 2009) — New evidence showing that very large earthquakes can trigger an increase in activity at nearby volcanoes has been uncovered by Oxford University scientists. 
An analysis of records in southern Chile has shown that up to four times as many volcanic eruptions occur during the year following very large earthquakes than in other years. This ‘volcanic surge’ can affect volcanoes up to at least 500 km away from an earthquake’s epicentre. 
A report of the work will be published in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters.
Previously, scientists had identified a few cases where volcanic eruptions follow very large earthquakes – but up until now it had been difficult to show statistically that such earthquakes may be the cause of an increase in eruptions, rather than the events just being a coincidence. 
‘The most unexpected part of this discovery was the considerable distance from the earthquake rupture where these eruptions took place, and the length of time for which we saw increased volcanic activity,’ said Sebastian Watt, a Dphil student in Oxford’s Department of Earth Sciences, who conducted the analysis. 
‘This suggests that seismic waves, radiating from the earthquake rupture, may trigger an eruption by stirring or shaking the molten rock beneath volcanoes. The disturbances that result from this lead to eruption but, because of the time it takes for pressure to build up inside a volcano and for magma to move towards the surface, an eruption may not occur until some months after the earthquake,’ Sebastian added. 
Sebastian examined the volcanic eruption and earthquake records of southern Chile – where, in 1835, Charles Darwin first speculated on the link between earthquakes and eruptions. By careful analysis of historical records, he discovered that volcanic activity increased for about a year after each of the very largest earthquakes in southern Chile during the past 150 years. The volcanoes most likely to be affected lay within about 500 km of the earthquake epicentre, and included both dormant and active volcanoes. 
The great Chilean earthquakes in 1906 and 1960 (the largest earthquake ever recorded) were each followed by activity at six or seven volcanoes – a significant increase on the average eruption rate of about 1 per year. Sebastian said: ‘This work is important because it shows that the risk of volcanic eruption increases dramatically following large earthquakes in parts of the world, such as Chile, affected by these phenomena. Hopefully, our findings could help governments and aid agencies in these regions to manage volcanic hazards by showing the need for increased awareness of volcanic activity after large earthquakes.’
source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090110084653.htm