This measured a colossal X 28 on the Solar Richter scale. For those unaquainted with the magnitude of Solar Flares it may be difficult to comprehend the extreme force of such an explosion which is the largest ever recorded in the Solar System, like an earthquake of 25 on the Richter scale.Although the two scales cannot be satisfactorily compared this explosion if transferred to the earthquake scale would be something like an earthquake of around 15 on the Richter scale. In other words an out of category event the like of which has never been seen or experienced.
Not entirely Earth directed.
Fortunately for our planet most of the debris from the explosion was not entirely Earth directed but a glancing blow from the flare did bring displays of the Northern Lights several days later. However this is nothing to what would have happened if the flare had been targetted directly towards Earth. What is certain is that this particular Solar explosion broke all records and is an event without precedence in living memory
October cluster.
This spate of extreme Solar activity began towards the end of October 2003 with a series of massive Solar eruptions. The largest of these measured X 18 on the Solar flare scale ( see pic below) A cluster of other X flare explosions within a matter of days made this one of the greatest periods of Solar activity on record. However this was nothing compared to the November explosion which is the biggest and most violent event the Solar System has produced within recorded memory.
Effects.
The precise effects of this solar bombardment are hard to determine. The short term aftermath usually involves disruption of all forms of electronic communication with a severe threat to all space satellites and telecommunications. Long term the effects are not easy to categorise but we believe these include highly disturbed weather patterns with a greatly increased risk of earthquakes and volcanic eruption in vulnerable locations.
Solar Flare
Solar particles interact with Earth's magnetosphere
Physical emotional and social consequences.
Physical emotional and social consequences.
Eruptions of this nature are also sure to have intense medical and emotional consequences. Some time ago, a Russian study confirmed that Solar eruptions do result in a greatly increased incidence of strokes and heart attacks. Emotionally the effects are of widely fluctuating feelings that at worst can result in broken relationships, despair and depression. On a larger scale our research clearly shows that Solar activity has the potential to trigger general social unrest even to the point of inciting wars, riots, revolutions, and a deteriorating state of International harmony.
Major risk.
But could a Solar flare actually destroy all life on the Earth. Unfortunately the answer is yes. Although the Sun is remarkably stable it does go through phases of increased activity. We are currently exiting one such phase where Solar activity was again at the peak of its 11 year cycle. What is remarkable about the October 2003 activity is that it sprung from a period when the Sun was expected to be relatively calm. This shows how little we know about the Sun and experts warn that a lethal flare explosion could conceivably erupt at any moment. The fact that one has not done so for many thousands of years is reassuring, but offers no comfort for long term security. Perhaps the most sobering realisation of all is that there is absolutely nothing we could do to stop such a flare.
The causes.
But just what causes Solar flares? Here we still have a lot to learn, but from our very own research we at NASCA believe major Solar flares are directly linked to other celestial phenomenon such as planetary alignments. For instance this current spate of Solar activity has occurred at a time when the Sun is ringed with aligned planets. To us this is not a coincidence, and it is our belief that once these aligning planets disperse to less influential positions then Solar activity will once again return to normal levels. The risk remains however that perhaps one day an alignment will arise capable of triggering a Solar Armaggeddon against which we shall have no defence at all.
Solar Flare: Feb 15th 2011 (CLICK ON IMAGE)
A sunspot viewed close-up in ultraviolet light, taken by the TRACE spacecraft
But could a Solar flare actually destroy all life on the Earth. Unfortunately the answer is yes. Although the Sun is remarkably stable it does go through phases of increased activity. We are currently exiting one such phase where Solar activity was again at the peak of its 11 year cycle. What is remarkable about the October 2003 activity is that it sprung from a period when the Sun was expected to be relatively calm. This shows how little we know about the Sun and experts warn that a lethal flare explosion could conceivably erupt at any moment. The fact that one has not done so for many thousands of years is reassuring, but offers no comfort for long term security. Perhaps the most sobering realisation of all is that there is absolutely nothing we could do to stop such a flare.
Solar Activity 2011
The causes.
But just what causes Solar flares? Here we still have a lot to learn, but from our very own research we at NASCA believe major Solar flares are directly linked to other celestial phenomenon such as planetary alignments. For instance this current spate of Solar activity has occurred at a time when the Sun is ringed with aligned planets. To us this is not a coincidence, and it is our belief that once these aligning planets disperse to less influential positions then Solar activity will once again return to normal levels. The risk remains however that perhaps one day an alignment will arise capable of triggering a Solar Armaggeddon against which we shall have no defence at all.
Solar Flare: Feb 15th 2011 (CLICK ON IMAGE)
Solar Flare: March 9th 2011 (CLICK ON IMAGE)
Jan 2008Wake up call.
"We can now expect to see an increasing number of sunspots from [this new] cycle," said Douglas Biesecker, a solar physicist with the U.S. government's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado.
Sunspots mark where a region of intense magnetic field from deep inside the sun emerges on its surface. The spots alone do not cause so-called space weather, but they are related to solar storms. More sunspots mean more stormy space weather.
The spots occur in cycles of increasing and decreasing activity that last approximately 11 years.
The last phase of heightened activity, dubbed Solar Cycle 23, peaked in 2000. The sunspot observed high in the sun's northern hemisphere on January 3 is the first definitely associated with Cycle 24, Biesecker explained.
"Seeing the first sunspot of the next solar cycle is important because it does mean that finally we're seeing what will be the eventual end of Cycle 23," he said.
For accounting purposes, Cycle 24 officially begins when the number of spots associated with it outnumbers the sunspots associated with Cycle 23, he added. That should occur within months.
David Hathaway is a solar physicist with the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. He equated last week's sunspot to the first kernel in a batch of popcorn going off.
"It takes them going off repeatedly before the new cycle takes over," he said.
If ever we needed a wake up call to our very vulnerable position in the Universe then the Sun has well and truly delivered it.
Though there is no conclusive direct correlations between Solar Flares, earthquakes, weather patterns, etc, evidence is mounting suggesting that there is an indirect connection. Patterns do appear between solar storms and what happens here on earth. I think at the moment we just do not understand these connections, however in time with more study we will.The graph below shows there has been a steady increase in the number of sunspots since 2009, with a prediction of a continued climb. This suggests that the sun is becoming more active, peaking over the next few years (Solar Cycle 24). The increased number of sunspots does not necessarily indicate the intensity of any future solar flares, only the potential for increased activity. However, with increased sunspots the potential for solar flares of any intensity becomes increasingly likely.
Additional Information
2003: Solar Storms
On 4 November 2003, the largest solar flare ever recorded exploded from the Sun's surface, sending an intense burst of radiation streaming towards the Earth. Before the storm peaked, x-rays overloaded the detectors on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), forcing scientists to estimate the flare's size.2003 Bam earthquakeThe 2003 Bam earthquake was a major earthquake that struck Bam and the surrounding Kerman province of southeastern Iran at 1:56 AM UTC(5:26 AM Iran Standard Time) on Friday, December 26, 2003. The most widely accepted estimate for the magnitude of the earthquake is a moment magnitude (Mw) of 6.6; estimated by the United States Geological Survey. The earthquake was particularly destructive, with the death toll amounting to 26,271 people and injuring an additional 30,000. The effects of the earthquake were exacerbated by the use of mud brick as the standard construction medium; many of the area's structures did not comply with earthquake regulations set in 1989.
2004:Solar Sunspot
The following article was written showing a concern with the increased sun's activity, however, sunspots are higher today and continue to grow.
A new analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years.Scientists based at the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich used ice cores from Greenland to construct a picture of our star's activity in the past.
They say that over the last century the number of sunspots rose at the same time that the Earth's climate became steadily warmer.
above: sunspots larger than the earth
The warming is being amplified by gases from fossil fuel burning, they argue.
'Little Ice Age'
Sunspots have been monitored on the Sun since 1610, shortly after the invention of the telescope. They provide the longest-running direct measurement of our star's activity.
The variation in sunspot numbers has revealed the Sun's 11-year cycle of activity as well as other, longer-term changes.
In particular, it has been noted that between about 1645 and 1715, few sunspots were seen on the Sun's surface.
This period is called the Maunder Minimum after the English astronomer who studied it.
'Little Ice Age'
Sunspots have been monitored on the Sun since 1610, shortly after the invention of the telescope. They provide the longest-running direct measurement of our star's activity.
The variation in sunspot numbers has revealed the Sun's 11-year cycle of activity as well as other, longer-term changes.
In particular, it has been noted that between about 1645 and 1715, few sunspots were seen on the Sun's surface.
This period is called the Maunder Minimum after the English astronomer who studied it.
It coincided with a spell of prolonged cold weather often referred to as the "Little Ice Age". Solar scientists strongly suspect there is a link between the two events - but the exact mechanism remains elusive.
Over the past few thousand years there is evidence of earlier Maunder-like coolings in the Earth's climate - indicated by tree-ring measurements that show slow growth due to prolonged cold.
Over the past few thousand years there is evidence of earlier Maunder-like coolings in the Earth's climate - indicated by tree-ring measurements that show slow growth due to prolonged cold.
above: Ice cores record climate trends back beyond human measurements
In an attempt to determine what happened to sunspots during these other cold periods, Dr Sami Solanki and colleagues have looked at concentrations of a form, or isotope, of beryllium in ice cores from Greenland.
The isotope is created by cosmic rays - high-energy particles from the depths of the galaxy.
The flux of cosmic rays reaching the Earth's surface is modulated by the strength of the solar wind, the charged particles that stream away from the Sun's surface.
And since the strength of the solar wind varies over the sunspot cycle, the amount of beryllium in the ice at a time in the past can therefore be used to infer the state of the Sun and, roughly, the number of sunspots.
Latest warming
Dr Solanki is presenting a paper on the reconstruction of past solar activity at Cool Stars, Stellar Systems And The Sun, a conference in Hamburg, Germany.
He says that the reconstruction shows the Maunder Minimum and the other minima that are known in the past thousand years.
But the most striking feature, he says, is that looking at the past 1,150 years the Sun has never been as active as it has been during the past 60 years.
Over the past few hundred years, there has been a steady increase in the numbers of sunspots, a trend that has accelerated in the past century, just at the time when the Earth has been getting warmer.
The data suggests that changing solar activity is influencing in some way the global climate causing the world to get warmer.
Over the past 20 years, however, the undersea megathrust earthquake number of sunspots has remained roughly constant, yet the average temperature of the Earth has continued to increase.
This is put down to a human-produced greenhouse effect caused by the combustion of fossil fuels.
This latest analysis shows that the Sun has had a considerable indirect influence on the global climate in the past, causing the Earth to warm or chill, and that mankind is amplifying the Sun's latest attempt to warm the Earth.
The isotope is created by cosmic rays - high-energy particles from the depths of the galaxy.
The flux of cosmic rays reaching the Earth's surface is modulated by the strength of the solar wind, the charged particles that stream away from the Sun's surface.
And since the strength of the solar wind varies over the sunspot cycle, the amount of beryllium in the ice at a time in the past can therefore be used to infer the state of the Sun and, roughly, the number of sunspots.
Latest warming
Dr Solanki is presenting a paper on the reconstruction of past solar activity at Cool Stars, Stellar Systems And The Sun, a conference in Hamburg, Germany.
He says that the reconstruction shows the Maunder Minimum and the other minima that are known in the past thousand years.
But the most striking feature, he says, is that looking at the past 1,150 years the Sun has never been as active as it has been during the past 60 years.
Over the past few hundred years, there has been a steady increase in the numbers of sunspots, a trend that has accelerated in the past century, just at the time when the Earth has been getting warmer.
The data suggests that changing solar activity is influencing in some way the global climate causing the world to get warmer.
Over the past 20 years, however, the undersea megathrust earthquake number of sunspots has remained roughly constant, yet the average temperature of the Earth has continued to increase.
This is put down to a human-produced greenhouse effect caused by the combustion of fossil fuels.
This latest analysis shows that the Sun has had a considerable indirect influence on the global climate in the past, causing the Earth to warm or chill, and that mankind is amplifying the Sun's latest attempt to warm the Earth.
2004: Solar Storms
SUN SENDS SOLAR STORMS TO EARTH
Nov. 8, 2004 Eruptions from a large and comDecember 26 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami
The quake itself is known by the scientific community as the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake.
The resulting tsunami is given various names, including the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, Asian Tsunami, Indonesian Tsunami, and Boxing Day Tsunami.
The earthquake was caused by subduction and triggered a series of devastating tsunamis along the coasts of most landmasses bordering the Indian Ocean, killing over 230,000 people in fourteen countries, and inundating coastal communities with waves up to 30 meters (100 feet) high. It was one of the deadliest natural disasters in recorded history. Indonesia was the hardest hit, followed by Sri Lanka, India, and Thailand.
With a magnitude of between 9.1 and 9.3, it is the third largest earthquake ever recorded on a seismograph. This earthquake had the longest duration of faulting ever observed, between 8.3 and 10 minutes. It caused the entire planet to vibrate as much as 1 cm (0.4 inches) and triggered other earthquakes as far away as Alaska. Its hypocenter was between Simeulue and mainland Indonesia.
The plight of the many affected people and countries prompted a worldwide humanitarian response. In all, the worldwide community donated more than $14 billion (2004 U.S. dollars) in humanitarian aid
The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake was an undersea megathrust earthquake that occurred at 00:58:53 UTC on Sunday, December 26, 2004, with an epicentre off the west coast of Sumatra, Indonesia. The quake itself is known by the scientific community as the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. The resulting tsunami is given various names, including the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, Asian Tsunami, Indonesian Tsunami, and Boxing Day Tsunami.The earthquake was caused by subduction and triggered a series of devastating tsunamis along the coasts of most landmasses bordering the Indian Ocean, killing over 230,000 people in fourteen countries, and inundating coastal communities with waves up to 30 meters (100 feet) high. It was one of the deadliest natural disasters in recorded history. Indonesia was the hardest hit, followed by Sri Lanka, India, and Thailand.With a magnitude of between 9.1 and 9.3, it is the third largest earthquake ever recorded on a seismograph. This earthquake had the longest duration of faulting ever observed, between 8.3 and 10 minutes. It caused the entire planet to vibrate as much as 1 cm (0.4 inches) and triggered other earthquakes as far away as Alaska. Its hypocenter was between Simeulue and mainland Indonesia.The plight of the many affected people and countries prompted a worldwide humanitarian response. In all, the worldwide community donated more than $14 billion (2004 U.S. dollars) in humanitarian aid
The emergency response in Bam, Iran wound down Monday as most remaining international rescue teams left the devastated city. An earthquake measuring 6.7 on the Richter scale struck in the early morning hours of December 26, leveling up to 70 percent of Bam’s structures, the majority built of mud bricks. The building collapses trapped the quake’s victims in grey dust. The ancient desert settlement lies about 600 miles southeast of Tehran.
United Nations authorities estimate the final death toll at 30,000 to 32,000, down from a previous estimate of 35,000, although Iranian Red Crescent teams were unearthing more corpses as late as Monday, January 5, and the death toll may climb still higher. The wounded were equal in numbers to the dead, and tens of thousands remain homeless. While, amazingly, a 97-year-old woman was pulled alive from the rubble last Saturday, nine days after the quake, rescue workers hold out little hope of finding more survivors.
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